On the Influence of Biotic and Abiotic Factors of the Environment on the Incidence of Leptospirosis Serogroups Grippothyfosae in the Tula Region

Abstract

Key words: morbidity, leptospirosis, strength, infection, common vole, weather, surveillance, disease forecasting, regression analysis and artificial neural networks.

Annotation: The article deals with the study of the effect of biotic (and the number of infection common vole) and abiotic (temperature, rainfall, snow depth) factors on the incidence of leptospirosis. System analysis using stepwise regression and artificial neural networks revealed that the incidence of growth at the forecast for the summer and autumn the most significantly affected by: the spring the number of common vole, its infection, warm winter with little snow, warm wet spring.